Peter Cornell
Houston Texans +6 vs Los Angeles Chargers
The Houston Texans have gotten off to a pretty solid start compared to expectation (3-0 ATS). I expect that success to continue with a matchup against one of the most banged up teams in the league. The injuries to the Chargers are starting to pile up and were an obvious problem last week when they got blown out at home by the Jags. Herbert being banged up and not having his top receiver in Keenan Allen and top offensive lineman Rashawn Slater. The defensive side of the ball is also pretty banged up with the absence of Joey Bosa and a limited JC Jackson. I expect the Texans run game with Dameon Pierce to have some success and keep this game close. I like the Chargers to win but within the number 22-19. Take the Texans.
Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
This is what they call in the stock market, buying the dip. The Titans have not been impressive this year, there is no arguing that. I don’t think it has been as bad as people are making it out to be. They lost a close one at home to the Giants and got torched by the best team in the league, the Buffalo Bills. Last week’s win looks a lot closer than the final score shows with a miracle final drive to get it within a field goal final. I think Mike Vrabel is a much better coach than most people would give him credit for. I have been not impressed with how the Colts have looked so far this year. The win last week against the Chiefs was what I call a flukey win. If not for the “taunting” call on Chris Jones, the Colts would be 0-2-1 and this spread is probably below a field goal. Give me the Titans on the Road in Indianapolis with a 20-19 victory. Take the Titans.
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 vs Buffalo Bills
This handicap is fairly similar to the one I had with the Texans and Chargers game. The injury report for this Bills roster is so long it would take forever to cover it. The defense is banged up and the offense just had to run 90 plays down in hot Miami, Florida. This team now has to pack it up after a gut wrenching loss and travel and play in a tough atmosphere in Baltimore where the temperature will be in the 50’s and raining. Lamar and company look to build off of a massive offensive performance in New England last week. I expect this to be a high scoring affair with the Bills edging the Ravens late 33-31. Take the Ravens.
Henry Porter
Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals under 42.5
The Panthers offense has been atrocious through the first three games this season. A 67 yard touchdown on a bubble screen last week was enough to put them ahead for good in their win versus the Saints. But on the other side of the ball, they have a sneaky good defense that is their best shot at winning games. The Cardinals have been one of the bigger disappointments this season and if not for a remarkable comeback against the Raiders, they would be sitting at 0-3. The Panthers know the defense has to ball out in order to have a chance, and the offense hasn’t shown they can sustain drives throughout the game. Factor in the potential wet conditions with the hurricane remnants rolling through, and I can see this game going under. It’s too close to pick a winner but I like the score to be around 20-16.
Kansas City Chiefs PK @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With this game potentially being played in Minnesota, it could take away the home field advantage for Tampa Bay. It doesn’t matter where this game is played, I like the Chiefs to win this one. The line was at Chiefs -3 and I still liked it there. The Bucs are riddled with injuries and Tom Brady is having some serious chemistry issues with his offensive playmakers. You know Mahomes and the Chiefs still want to beat down the Bucs every time they play them since their Super Bowl defeat. The Chiefs were plagued by mental errors in their loss to a desperate Colts team last week. I think Kansas City will win this one whether it’s a close one or a high scoring affair. Chiefs win 28-20.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars over 47
Both of these teams have had surprising starts to the 2022 season. Nobody has been able to stop Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense averaging 29 points per game. The addition of AJ Brown with DeVonta Smith makes it extremely difficult to hold this team to field goals. This Jaguars offense is nothing like we’ve seen from them in recent years. Trevor Lawrence is looking like the number one pick we thought he would be now that Urban Meyer is gone. I think the Jags will get out to an early lead and it will be back and forth until the fourth quarter when the Eagles pull away to get to 4-0. Philly takes this one and cashes the over 32-23.
Roger Murdock
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 @ Carolina Panthers
Both Arizona & Carolina have gotten off to shaky starts and neither offense has looked good. This handicap comes down to 1 thing: Kyler Murray vs. Baker Mayfield. I don’t trust Baker as far as I could throw him. While Kyler has his limitations, I trust his creativity and ability to improvise if this game is close. Matt Rhule has still yet to win a game when opponents score 17, and I expect that trend to continue this week.
Baltimore +3.5 vs Buffalo Bills
Lamar Jackson has been phenomenal so far this season and now faces the pre-season MVP favorite, Josh Allen. The Bills last 20 wins have been by double digits. Impressive, but that means they are consistently losing every close game. Last week was no exception, as the Bills again struggled in crunch time in Miami. With a 3.5 point spread, this game is likely to be close, and the Ravens have one of the few offenses in the league that can keep up with the Bills at the top of their game. 3.5 points is way too much in Baltimore and I like the Ravens outright in this spot.
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs New York Jets
Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers offense have been awful this year, but don’t let the Browns game sway you on their defense; it is still one of the best in the NFL. The Jets are still the Jets, and I’m not sure that Zach Wilson returning is an upgrade from Joe Flacco. Pittsburgh also has a rest advantage after Thursday night football last week and a huge coaching advantage. Don’t overthink this one; it’s one of the best & most consistent NFL franchises at home against one of the worst. Pittsburgh wins this one by double digits.
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