Roger Murdock (18-12 record)
ECU +5 @ Cincinnati
Absolutely love this spot for the Pirates. This is a matchup of an ECU program headed on an upward trajectory vs. a Cincinnati program that has peaked and headed down. ECU continues to win games as outright dogs. They have an explosive offense and Holton Ahlers is a quarterback that I trust to win a close game. They are coming off a bye and I think it's huge that they have already sealed bowl eligibility, allowing them to free wheel the rest of the year. Cincinnati really just isn't that good this year and I don't see how they can get up for a game like this. I think the Pirates roll this week, 31-17.
TCU has had an incredible run and is no doubt a very talented team, but they have to be tired. Texas took advantage of an emotionally spent Kansas State team last week in a rout and I expect more or the same this week. This Texas team is a few bounces away from being undefeated and in the playoff mix. Better coach and better team in a favorable spot. I'll lay the 7 because Texas blows TCU out this week, 48-21.
Auburn -1.5 vs. Texas A&M
I've seen enough of this A&M team. I think they have quit. Meanwhile Auburn has been horrendous, but they have an interim coach that can get some motivation in the locker room. They have played arguably the most difficult schedule in the nation but have to be desperate for some sort of signature win this year. On the A&M side, this is a totally lost season. After the fly issues last week, there's no way the players are excited to go to Auburn and try to get to 4-6. Getting bowl eligible in obviously doesn't matter at A&M after they backed out of last years Gator Bowl. Stylistically, I think an Auburn team that wants to pound it on the run game is a perfect matchup against a team ready to get this season over. Auburn wins this one by a score of 31-7. WDE.
Henry Porter (15-15 record)
Arkansas State/UMass under 49.5
Last week I got in the lab to find three game totals I loved and they all turned out to be winners, why stop now? There are bunch of stats that tell you why you should bet every UMass under but I’ll just give you a few. UMass is last in the country at 10.9 points per game, they are 96th in pace of play, and just two of their nine games have gone over. Arkansas State on the other hand is 77th in pace of play but in the last three games, the Red Wolves rank 120th in pace of play. Arkansas State is averaging 22 points a game but their defense is the biggest concern and the biggest reason behind their 2-7 record on the season. I don't think it will be a concern against the Minutemen. When you’re giving me 50 points in a game with offenses this bad, I am almost always going to take the under. I’ll take Arkansas State at home to get the win, 24-16.
UAB/North Texas over 57.5
A stat that doesn’t get talked about a lot intrigues me in this game; and that stat is yards per play. North Texas and UAB rank 7th and 14th respectively in this category which tells me that they are among the best in the country in big plays. These teams combine to average 63 points per game while their defenses give up a combined 62 points per game. I love the rushing game matchup for this over as UAB is sixth in the nation in rushing yards per game and North Texas is 101st in total rushing defense. UAB doesn’t have a bad passing defense but North Texas quarterback Austin Aune seems to find a way to put up big numbers against just about anyone. Despite having the better record, North Texas is catching six points on the road in Birmingham. I like a desperate Blazers team to get a narrow victory at home and cash our over, 34-32.
Navy +16.5 vs #20 Notre Dame
What a win for this Notre Dame squad last week with their dismantling of Clemson by three touchdowns to get them inside the top 25. Can you think of a better let down spot than a noon kickoff against a 3-6 Navy team with their methodical and boring triple option? I personally cannot. Don’t get me wrong, Notre Dame will still win this game. But, I like for the Midshipmen to hang around and give Notre Dame their best shot. Navy has had a quality defense this year and was able to keep it close with Cincinnati last week in a ten point defeat. Navy has historically given the Fighting Irish fits and they are also 4-0 against the spread on the road; and yes this is a home game but it is at a neutral field in Baltimore so that has to count for something right? Let's also not forget that the Irish have largely been a huge disappointment this year up until last week. I like Navy to give Notre Dame everything they have on senior day in what is another lost season for the Midshipmen. Notre Dame takes home the win, 23-14.
Peter Cornell (13-14-3 record)
UConn +14.5 vs #19 Liberty
Here we have 2 teams that have massively out performed expectations. UConn has won more games (5) this year than they have won in the last 3 seasons that they have played football (4, they did not play in 2020). Liberty has also had a historical season with an outstanding 8-1 record with the only loss being to Wake Forest on a missed 2 point conversion. Liberty is coming off the programs biggest win in its history last week winning on the road at Arkansas. The week after their biggest win of the programs history I can only look to fade that team. The Flames have been on the road in Arkansas then back home to Virginia and now back on the road up to cold Connecticut. Weather in this one looks to be not great with rain in the forecast. I expect a lower scoring game which will hurt Liberty's ability to get margin in this one. Liberty wins this one but fails to cover 24-14. Take the Huskies.
Undefeated TCU is a 7 point underdog to Texas who has lost their 3 games? No way! That is the quote I took from the drunk guy at the end of the bar who gets his best bets from ESPN and College Gameday. There is a reason this number is what it is. TCU has been very fortunate to somehow still be undefeated this late in the season. TCU has faced a backup QB on multiple occasions so far this year in the OU, Kansas, K-State, and Texas Tech games. They will not have the same luck in this one and even if they do, Texas has one of the best backup QB's in the country. Texas has probably the worst record possible for how they have played so far this year. They could very easily be 8-1 and honestly 9-0 if everything had went right for them. Nonetheless, I think I have the much better football team here at home in what looks to be one of the craziest atmospheres of the year. Texas lights up the scoreboard here and wins big 41-24. Take the Longhorns.
#25 Washington/#6 Oregon Over 72.5
This one is shaping up to be one of the highest scoring games of the season. These two have 2 of the highest scoring offenses in the nation. Oregon has been nothing short of explosive this season averaging 43.1 points per game which ranks 5th in the country and that includes the Georgia game where they only scored 3 points. Washington is averaging 38.1 points per game which ranks them 20th in the country in scoring. The reason I really like this over is the need for Oregon to get style points. Oregon wants to impress the CFB Playoff committee every chance they get and there is no better time to do it than against a ranked foe with no defense. I look for this one to get really high scoring with Oregon winning 54-31. Take the Over.
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