We are back for another week of golf picks. Nelly Korda stormed from behind on Sunday in Florida to cash the 18/1 ticket last week. Let's get hot.
The PGA Tour heads to Sea Island, Georgia this week for the last real event of the swing season before golf’s “offseason” that will run until the first week of January. Sea Island is always a favorite tour spot amongst the players. It is reportedly one of the most well run events and treats the caddies very well. Another interesting aspect of this event is the amount of Tour Pros who reside in the Sea Island/St. Simon’s island area and play at Sea Island as their home course. Is there an advantage to sleeping in your own bed during a tournament week? Let’s find out.
The Course: Seaside Course and Plantation Course at Sea Island Resort, Georgia
Play is split on Thursday between the Seaside & Plantation Courses. Both weekend rounds will be played on the Seaside.
Plantation Course: Par 72 – 7,000 yards. The plantation is the easier of the two courses and one of the easiest on Tour. This is primarily due to the distance of 7,000 yards which is extremely short for a par 72 on Tour. This course will be a birdie fest so I won’t focus on it much and just hope that my guys get a hot putter when they play the Plantation.
Seaside Course:
Par 70 – 7,000 yards
Bermudagrass fairways and greens.
It is a resort style golf course with some links flavor. It can not be overpowered and accuracy will be a premium.
The course’s primary defense is wind & weather. It sits right on the ocean. This week it looks like it will be pretty cold, but not much wind. This will lead to lower scoring than we have historically seen here (-22, -22, -19, -19, -21 over the last 5 years). I expect the winning score to best -25.
Whenever scores are that low, you have to be able to make birdies. You will need a hot putter to win.
To get that hot putter, you need to give yourself plenty of birdie chances. The course is designed to not be overpowered by distance. There is little advantage to trying to drive it up near these greens. Therefore, accuracy off the tee with shorter clubs will be a must, and then greens in regulation will be key.
Method & Model
This week, I am keying on the following stats:
Par 70 scoring
SG: Approach
SG: putting on bermudagrass
Birdies or better percentage
Sea Island Course History
Recent form: last 12 rounds
Picks (all outrights to win 20u unless otherwise stated)
Justin Rose 45-1
Justin Rose has not played his best golf in a long time. But he flashed something last week at the Houston Open. He played well all around from tee-to-green and notched a top 10 finish. In a field this weak, that is all I needed to see from a former world #1 to fire on him at 45-1. Last year he finished 12th at Sea Island in the midst of his poor play, so he must have some reverence for the course. Let’s hope he gets hot this week.
Davis Riley 45-1
Davis Riley is still looking for a maiden victory which would solidify him as a top-tier tour pro. He has done everything but win a tournament at this point. He comes into this event playing well but not quite getting the results out of his play. He is top 10 in SG: Approach through the fall swing season, but has yet to really contend due to lackluster putting. I’m hoping that he can catch a hot putter this week in a value bet spot. He should not be 45-1 in this field as he is one of the most talented players here. I will take a stab on that.
Brendon Todd 70-1
Todd finished 4th at Sea Island when he was going for 3 straight tour victories. He finished T7 at Congaree earlier this fall, so he has shown some recent form as well. But my reason for betting him this week is purely course fit. The term “overpower” is not in Todd’s vocabulary. He is one of the shortest hitters on tour, but he can run hotter than anyone with the putter. On a course where accuracy will be at a premium, I trust him to compete with the players that generally drive it way past him. At 70-1 for a multiple time proven winner in this field, don’t miss out on this bet this week.
That’s all I’ve got for the PGA Tour this week. Keeping the card pretty tight since there is a ton of unpredictability in this event.
Bonus DP World Tour Championship Bets
The DP World Tour’s premier event goes off in Dubai this weekend. The top of the field is loaded with Rory, Rahm, Fitzpatrick, Hovland, Lowry, and Fleetwood chasing the Race to Dubai title. I don’t see anyone else winning this event. Premier players always shine here; Rory, Rahm, and Fitzpatrick have combined to win 6 of the last 10 here. That is clear in the odds this week: Rory sits at 3-1 (he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 here ever) while Rahm sits at 5-1. But from the top of the board I will go with the hot-hand of:
Tommy Fleetwood 15-1
Tommy is coming off of a win last week in South Africa at the Nedbank Championship. For whatever reason, Tommy is much more comfortable playing on the DP World Tour where he has 5 wins in the last 5 years despite limited starts, compared to his often cited 0 wins in the United States. He is a desert-fox with multiple wins at Abu Dhabi and several good results here in Dubai (a 10th and a 2nd in the last 3 years). He presents the best “value” bet on the board at 15-1 going up against the big guns. I will take my chances here and hope he continues the run of good form.
Bonus LPGA CME Globe Tour Championship
The final event of the LPGA season is upon us from Tiburon in Naples, Florida. All of the best players in the world are here. I am going back to the well with:
Nelly Korda 11-1
After the win last week, I expected Nelly to be the betting favorite this week, but the books have again priced Lydia Ko ahead of her. The return of Atthaya Thitikul has bumped her odds down to double digits again. Nelly won last week in Florida and I expect her to get it done close to home again this week. She has 3 top 5’s at this event in her last 4 tries (yes, this can be said about almost every event she plays), and she is no doubt hungry to cap off her return to world #1 with a win at the Tour Championship. Again, this is way too much value to pass up.
Jin Young Ko 70-1
Rinse and repeat my write-up for Jin Young Ko from last week. She missed another cut and continues to play the worst golf I’ve ever seen from her. But she is the two-time defending champion at this event and still undoubtedly one of the top players in the world when she finds her form. If the books keep dropping her odds, I will keep betting it. If she popped a win this week, there is no doubt she would immediately drop to single digit odds in her next event. Stay patient.
Let's run the table this week with 3 wins. Good luck!
RM
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