College basketball season is officially upon us. The exhibitions and secret scrimmages are over and the real thing tips off tonight. The journey to cutting down the nets in April will start tonight for one team and I am excited to get to know some of these programs. There are lots of uncertainties across the country with coaches moving and players transferring, but that doesn’t mean we can’t bet on them. Here are five bets I like tonight in opening night of college basketball.
Tarleton State +15 @ Arizona State
Tarleton State went an admirable 14-17 in their first full season as a Division 1 program last season. The Texans are led by longtime coach Billy Gillespie who spent time as the head coach at Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Ole Miss. Arizona State lost three double digit scorers from last season and are looking to replace that production with two transfers from Nevada in Warren Washington and Desmond Cambridge. Although the Sun Devils will have plenty of talent on the court, Tarleton State will not be intimidated playing a big Pac 12 school. Last season alone, Tarleton State played the likes of Stanford, Kansas, Wichita State, Michigan, and Gonzaga. They also covered the spread in four of those five games. I like the veteran Billy Gillespie to keep it in the number for us in the desert. I’ll take Arizona State to win 68-58.
Texas Southern +15.5 @ San Francisco
San Francisco is coming off a very impressive season last year that saw them earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. The Dons look like they could be making a name for themselves in college basketball but will need to replace a ton of production including their leading scorer from last season. They have retooled through the transfer portal but they may need some time to mesh before some consistent play is reached. Texas Southern is coming off a second straight NCAA Tournament appearance and returns a decent amount of production from last season. This team is no stranger to traveling across the country as they took on Oregon, Washington, St. Mary’s, BYU, and Air Force last season. The Tigers went 6-2 ATS against power 5 opponents last year including a victory at Florida. I like this game to be competitive throughout with San Francisco pulling it out, 79-72.
Wake Forest/Fairfield over 138.5
The mighty Stags of Fairfield travel to Winston-Salem tonight where they are just 11.5 point underdogs. The Demon Deacons are coming off an impressive 25 win campaign that saw them reach the quarterfinals of the NIT. They lose two major contributors in Alondes WIlliams and Jake LaRavia to the NBA but still return plenty of talent and are one of the more underrated teams in the ACC. Fairfield played an exhibition against Rutgers a few days ago and lost by a score of 78-65. Last season, the Stags held tough in their first two games against Providence and Boston College, losing both games by single digits and averaging 69 points in those two games. I think Fairfield will be able to score on Wake Forest and I also think the Deacs won’t have any problem putting the ball in the hoop. I like Wake to narrowly cover and more importantly, cash the over. Deacs win this ball game 82-69.
UNC Wilmington +23 @ North Carolina
The Tarheels are looking to right the ship this season coming off a National Championship appearance where they choked away the trophy to Kansas. They have lofty expectations with lots of returners and a number one ranking beside their name. UNC Wilmington has lost a good portion of their starting lineup from last season but they have improved through the transfer portal and will look to build on a 27 win season that ended with a CBI Championship victory. UNC is a good team and will blow out most of their non-conference opponents, but I like this one to not get away from the Seahawks. Their will be some jitters from this Tarheels team with all of the expectations and I like an in-state team like UNCW to come in with something to prove. The Seahawks were also 23-11 ATS last year. UNC takes this one but doesn’t cover, 77-59.
Bowling Green -2.5 vs Air Force
Both of these teams have some work to do this season as they each lost 18 games last year. These two teams are on completely opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to pace of play. Last year, Bowling Green ranked sixth in the country averaging 76 possessions per game while Air Force ranked 354th averaging 64 possessions per game. This should be an interesting game with each team trying to play a completely different brand of basketball. Both of these teams are replacing their leading scorers from last year, and Air Force is also one of the youngest teams in the country. I think Bowling Green’s style of play will win out here forcing Air Force to speed up their game, which they don’t like to do. I like Bowling Green to win this battle of the Falcons, 67-61.
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